2022年初的汽车销售预测令人沮丧

After a tough couple of years, consumers went into 2022 hopeful that 疯狂的汽车定价和精简的经销商库存 会成为过去吗. 然而, analysts and industry groups have gone from being cautiously optimistic just a few weeks ago to fairly sullen about the prospects of North American shoppers locating anything that could be considered a square deal.
 

高盛最近 发布报告 这句话试图概括整个情况, 原因是港口持续拥堵, 与大流行相关的工厂关闭, 市场通货膨胀, 数百万人正在退出劳动力市场, and continued complications stemming from the semiconductor shortage. It estimated that vehicle pricing would fail to go down — and may even pitch up in the first half of 2022 — until all of the above issues have been addressed. But it was hardly the only group chiming in or suggesting that the hard times could last through 2023, as the goalpost for what should be deemed acceptable is moved yet again. 

的 National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA), representing some 16,000 U.S. 汽车零售商, has asserted that supply chain constraints kept dealer inventories down by a whopping 59 percent in December (year over year). 但它并不期待反弹, with the association predicting lackluster inventories through at least the second half of this year.

“的 coronavirus pandemic and resulting microchip shortage and production cuts significantly constrained new-car and truck inventory at dealerships across the country,NADA首席经济学家帕特里克·曼齐说 彭博 周三. 限制进一步抑制了新车销售, as well as used-vehicle inventory shortages and increased vehicle prices.”

从 彭博:

的 twin crises of the pandemic and the semiconductor shortage have taken a toll on U.S. 汽车销售总额为14%.去年是9300万，增加了300万.与2020年相比下降了1%，当时封锁打击了经济. 在流感大流行之前，美国.S. 汽车市场连续五年销量超过1700万辆. 该经销商集团表示，库存正在“缓慢改善”,” but noted the chip shortage cut global auto production by 11.300万辆汽车.

But dealers don’t have much incentive to change the situation because they made an absolute killing last year. Elevated demand and tight supplies made it so dealerships could charge previously unheard-of prices for both new and used vehicles. 到2021年底, secondhand vehicles were selling for nearly 50 percent more than they were just a year prior. 以美元计算, 这使得一笔典型的汽车交易超过了7美元,在短短一年的时间里，价格上涨了1000美元.

授予, wholesale prices also went up and forced showrooms to ask for more money on each vehicle sold. 但这不是收支平衡的问题. Large dealerships are currently enjoying record-breaking profitability and it’s largely been at the expense of consumers.

For now, market analysts have issued reassurances that 2022 will see prices falling. But it’s not clear why that will be happening with the same groups claiming it’s to be another year of insanely tight inventories. Edmunds even claimed the last two years will have encouraged those shopping for a new car to order vehicles they want well in advance to ensure they can actually obtain them. 意料之中的是, 你不可能以低于建议零售价的价格买到任何东西, 该媒体声称哪一笔交易可以被视为“好交易”, 相对而言.”

当然，这不是真的. But we’ve been subjected to bad deals for so long that it feels like people have developed a case of Stockholm syndrome. 考虑一下这个. 在11月, Edmunds was reporting that the average monthly payment on a used vehicle had climbed to $520 per month … for 70 months. But I didn’t see a single story about a dealership being held hostage by a disgruntled patron once last year.

If you’re wondering what can be done, you’ve got a lot of company. 虽然大流行确实扼杀了生产, the global semiconductor industry has clearly shifted away from the low margins offered by the vintage chips that typically go into automobiles to prioritize modern units providing greater profitability. Automakers really should have seen this one coming and started building their own chips prior to 2020. 西方制造商尤其如此, since most semiconductor production is based in Asia — making the shortages a little easier for their Eastern counterparts to contend with. 然而, manufacturers haven’t opted to branch out into building the components necessary to achieve final production. 而不是, automakers have been asking the government to lend a hand by funneling money into the chip industry in the hope that they’ll eventually get the chips they need.

但还有其他因素. 的 公众接受这些价格和政策的意愿 这是它们持续这么久的一个重要原因吗. While many are worried that people shunning the market’s high rates will allow the already delicate situation to descend into complete chaos if people stop buying, it’s bound to make cars cheaper and we’ve probably already set ourselves up for a pretty big fall. It’s also already happening — with annual vehicle sales approaching the low numbers endured during the Great Recession. We’re now millions of sales below the typical 17 million averages.

进入2022年，NADA预计新车销量将达到15%.400万套. 这表示增加了3.4 percent from 2021 and is fairly close to what’s being estimated by IHS Markit (15.500万美元)，以及其他大量门店. But most analysts overestimated last year and just about everyone is convinced that 汽车 production won’t rebound until late in 2022 or early 2023. That’s roughly the same pitch we got at the start of 2021 — just with everything being pushed another 12 months down the road.